"From a global perspective, the growth of LCD TVs will enter the single digit era. This is the industry's general forecast for 2011." On January 14, Yang Dongwen, Vice President of Skyworth Group, told reporters.
From 37% in 2009 to 15% in 2010, and to the single-digit growth in 2011, the global high-speed growth of LCD TVs reached an inflection point. The Chinese LCD TV market has also grown from the triple-digit growth rate in 2009 to 28% in 2010. As of 2011, the industry generally predicts that the growth rate will be within 15%, especially the growth rate of the urban market will basically stop.
Out of this pessimistic forecast and the shadow of the industry inventory crisis that emerged in the first half of 2010, major LCD TV manufacturers have chosen to limit production to respond to possible sales cycle adjustments.
According to the latest data from DisplaySearch, a market research organization, a total of 16 LCD TV brand manufacturers, including the top six manufacturers in Samsung, LG, and Sony, as well as six domestic brands including TCL and Skyworth, have adjusted their production of LCD TVs. The plan predicts that its total production will be reduced from 18.3 million units in November 2010 to 15.4 million units in March 2011, while the total production volume of 46.3 million units in the first quarter of 2011 will be a 12% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2010. .
Weak growth in 2011 Although foreign brands such as Sony and Samsung have adopted a 20% price reduction strategy since New Year's Day 2011, many domestic brands have taken follow-up measures, but GOME’s relevant sources stated that LCD TV sales growth is in the single digits. Within. At the same time, its overall sales data increased by more than 25%.
According to survey data of flat-panel TVs sold by the survey company in the 100 cities in China, the sales of flat-panel TVs in the domestic first-tier cities showed negative growth for the first time in two weeks from December 27, 2010 to January 9, 2010. -1.6%.
Zhang Bing, Marketing Director of DisplaySearch China, said, “In fact, the negative growth of flat-panel TVs in the primary and secondary markets began in the second quarter of last year, and the overall Chinese flat-panel market experienced a negative growth of 2% in the third quarter, although it recovered to 10 in the fourth quarter. Positive growth of more than %, but this is mainly due to the rapid growth of flat-panel televisions driven by home appliances to the countryside. Last year, home appliances to the countryside led LCD TV sales of more than 40 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7 times.
For the shrinking of the urban market, Yang Dongwen analyzed that “from 2004 to 2010, China’s major urban families basically completed the replacement of CRTs to LCD TVs. Although we have introduced new technologies such as LED and 3D TV, these Not enough to be a reason for users to change immediately."
However, in view of some TV manufacturers, not only will the growth of the urban market continue to shrink in 2011, but the growth of the rural market is also not optimistic. A person in charge of a color TV company told this reporter that “Last year, sales of home appliances to rural TVs rose sharply because the price limit was raised from 3,500 yuan to 7,000 yuan. There is no major adjustment for home appliances to the countryside this year, so the growth of LCD TVs can be maintained. 20% is good."
The expected drop in shipments also led color TV makers to reduce panel purchases. According to a report from DisplaySearch, the total number of LCD TV panels imported by China in November 2010 was 5.1 million, which was 5 million in December. It is forecasted that it will decrease to 4.6 million in January 2011 and 3.2 million in February.
From the perspective of the global market, due to the sustained negative growth in the North American market, the growth of the European market has also dropped to within 5%, and after the exit of the old-fashioned trade policy in the Japanese market, its growth rate in 2011 will also drop significantly, such as Samsung, LG, Sony, Panasonic, etc. The mainstream brands have also lowered their respective production plans.
Panel prices: Helpless off-site factors Facing shrinking demand, color TV manufacturers need to adjust their production plans in order to balance supply and demand. However, compared to the multinational giants with upstream panel resources, the Chinese TV manufacturers are most concerned about the panel prices, which makes them feel the most helpless off-site factors.
The industry inventory crisis that occurred in China's color TV in 2010 was due to over-optimism in market forecasts, leading to large-scale production and large-scale panel purchases. As a result, the slowdown in market demand caused TV companies to accumulate large amounts of inventory, and the panels purchased in advance were Due to the continuous fall in prices in the later period, which resulted in huge price losses, TCL Multimedia alone incurred a loss of HK$911 million.
According to the latest report of DisplaySearch, in the first quarter of 2011, the main materials and components of liquid crystal panels such as glass substrates, color filters, polarizers, LED tubes, and light guide plates were basically balanced in supply and demand, and due to capacity utilization adjustment, 2011 Monthly shipments of large-size LCD panels will be reduced by 2% from December 2010; in February, the Chinese Spring Festival holiday, shipments will drop by another 7%; but in March is expected to rebound sharply, and shipments will exceed 6,000. Millions. It is expected that the inventory of the top 5 LCD panel makers in the world will have reached a safe level by the end of 2010.
Zhang Bing said, “Although LCD panel makers will reduce capacity utilization in January and February, global capacity utilization is expected to exceed 90% by March.â€
Although Samsung and LGD have recently voiced the hope that prices for LCD panels will rise in March, TV manufacturers have different opinions. Yang Dongwen said, "Global LCD TV shipment growth in 2011 will be single digits, while the LCD TV production line does not exceed 5%, so the panel supply will remain a basic balance, panel prices have no basis."
From 37% in 2009 to 15% in 2010, and to the single-digit growth in 2011, the global high-speed growth of LCD TVs reached an inflection point. The Chinese LCD TV market has also grown from the triple-digit growth rate in 2009 to 28% in 2010. As of 2011, the industry generally predicts that the growth rate will be within 15%, especially the growth rate of the urban market will basically stop.
Out of this pessimistic forecast and the shadow of the industry inventory crisis that emerged in the first half of 2010, major LCD TV manufacturers have chosen to limit production to respond to possible sales cycle adjustments.
According to the latest data from DisplaySearch, a market research organization, a total of 16 LCD TV brand manufacturers, including the top six manufacturers in Samsung, LG, and Sony, as well as six domestic brands including TCL and Skyworth, have adjusted their production of LCD TVs. The plan predicts that its total production will be reduced from 18.3 million units in November 2010 to 15.4 million units in March 2011, while the total production volume of 46.3 million units in the first quarter of 2011 will be a 12% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2010. .
Weak growth in 2011 Although foreign brands such as Sony and Samsung have adopted a 20% price reduction strategy since New Year's Day 2011, many domestic brands have taken follow-up measures, but GOME’s relevant sources stated that LCD TV sales growth is in the single digits. Within. At the same time, its overall sales data increased by more than 25%.
According to survey data of flat-panel TVs sold by the survey company in the 100 cities in China, the sales of flat-panel TVs in the domestic first-tier cities showed negative growth for the first time in two weeks from December 27, 2010 to January 9, 2010. -1.6%.
Zhang Bing, Marketing Director of DisplaySearch China, said, “In fact, the negative growth of flat-panel TVs in the primary and secondary markets began in the second quarter of last year, and the overall Chinese flat-panel market experienced a negative growth of 2% in the third quarter, although it recovered to 10 in the fourth quarter. Positive growth of more than %, but this is mainly due to the rapid growth of flat-panel televisions driven by home appliances to the countryside. Last year, home appliances to the countryside led LCD TV sales of more than 40 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7 times.
For the shrinking of the urban market, Yang Dongwen analyzed that “from 2004 to 2010, China’s major urban families basically completed the replacement of CRTs to LCD TVs. Although we have introduced new technologies such as LED and 3D TV, these Not enough to be a reason for users to change immediately."
However, in view of some TV manufacturers, not only will the growth of the urban market continue to shrink in 2011, but the growth of the rural market is also not optimistic. A person in charge of a color TV company told this reporter that “Last year, sales of home appliances to rural TVs rose sharply because the price limit was raised from 3,500 yuan to 7,000 yuan. There is no major adjustment for home appliances to the countryside this year, so the growth of LCD TVs can be maintained. 20% is good."
The expected drop in shipments also led color TV makers to reduce panel purchases. According to a report from DisplaySearch, the total number of LCD TV panels imported by China in November 2010 was 5.1 million, which was 5 million in December. It is forecasted that it will decrease to 4.6 million in January 2011 and 3.2 million in February.
From the perspective of the global market, due to the sustained negative growth in the North American market, the growth of the European market has also dropped to within 5%, and after the exit of the old-fashioned trade policy in the Japanese market, its growth rate in 2011 will also drop significantly, such as Samsung, LG, Sony, Panasonic, etc. The mainstream brands have also lowered their respective production plans.
Panel prices: Helpless off-site factors Facing shrinking demand, color TV manufacturers need to adjust their production plans in order to balance supply and demand. However, compared to the multinational giants with upstream panel resources, the Chinese TV manufacturers are most concerned about the panel prices, which makes them feel the most helpless off-site factors.
The industry inventory crisis that occurred in China's color TV in 2010 was due to over-optimism in market forecasts, leading to large-scale production and large-scale panel purchases. As a result, the slowdown in market demand caused TV companies to accumulate large amounts of inventory, and the panels purchased in advance were Due to the continuous fall in prices in the later period, which resulted in huge price losses, TCL Multimedia alone incurred a loss of HK$911 million.
According to the latest report of DisplaySearch, in the first quarter of 2011, the main materials and components of liquid crystal panels such as glass substrates, color filters, polarizers, LED tubes, and light guide plates were basically balanced in supply and demand, and due to capacity utilization adjustment, 2011 Monthly shipments of large-size LCD panels will be reduced by 2% from December 2010; in February, the Chinese Spring Festival holiday, shipments will drop by another 7%; but in March is expected to rebound sharply, and shipments will exceed 6,000. Millions. It is expected that the inventory of the top 5 LCD panel makers in the world will have reached a safe level by the end of 2010.
Zhang Bing said, “Although LCD panel makers will reduce capacity utilization in January and February, global capacity utilization is expected to exceed 90% by March.â€
Although Samsung and LGD have recently voiced the hope that prices for LCD panels will rise in March, TV manufacturers have different opinions. Yang Dongwen said, "Global LCD TV shipment growth in 2011 will be single digits, while the LCD TV production line does not exceed 5%, so the panel supply will remain a basic balance, panel prices have no basis."
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