"The 12th Five-Year Plan" The most "power consumption" in the Midwest
According to CECâ€™s forecast, during the â€œ12th Five-Year Planâ€ period, the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society is 8.5%, which is 2% lower than that in the â€œEleventh Five-Year Planâ€ period. The total electricity consumption may reach 6.5 trillion kwh. . During the â€œThirteenth Five-Year Planâ€ period, the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society is 6.5%, and the total power consumption is expected to reach 8.5 trillion kWh.
However, under the background of deceleration in electricity consumption growth across the country, during the â€œTwelfth Five-Year Planâ€ period, the Midwest, Northeast, and some eastern provinces that have not yet completed industrialization will still be large consumers of electricity. Taking Ningxia as an example, due to the rapid development of heavy industry, its per capita social power consumption is currently the highest in the country, but the per capita electricity consumption of its residents is the lowest in the country.
According to the pre-judgment of the CEC, electricity growth will take place in double-digit provinces in the next five years, with Hebei, Shandong and Hainan in the east, Anhui and Shanxi in the middle, Tibet, Xinjiang, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou and Chongqing in the west. In Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu provinces, due to the late entry into industrialization, electricity growth will decline.
Xue Jing believes that the growth of electricity consumption in Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, and Guangxi provinces will remain outstanding in the next five years. Anhui and Shanxi, due to their resourceful provinces, will also have similar characteristics.
In 2009, electricity consumption in Xinjiang, Guangxi, and Hebei reached 14.3%, 12.6, and 11.9%, respectively, which is significantly higher than the national growth rate of 6.44%. In the first three quarters of this year, Guangxiâ€™s entire society used 740.02 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 23.88% year-on-year, exceeding the local economic growth rate by about 10%.
Big energy provinces need to â€œbunch and transmit powerâ€
At present, in order to meet the needs of electricity use, many regions have already planned a large number of power investments, or plans to purchase electricity over long distances. The â€œTwelfth Five-Year Planâ€ of the Hubei Provincial Electric Power proposed that the total social power consumption in Hubei Province in 2010, 2015, and 2020 be respectively 1,251, 1,856, 241 billion kWh, and it is expected that the â€œ12th Five-Year Planâ€ and â€œThirteenth Five-Year Planâ€ The average annual growth rate was 8.2% and 5.4% respectively. In the next five years, the power gap in the province's power grid will mainly depend on the purchase of thermal power from the north, of which Inner Mongolia has become the main transportation site.
Zhang Yunzhou, dean of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, believes that during the â€œTwelfth Five-Year Planâ€ period, it is necessary to transport southwest hydropower, coal-fired power from the northwest, wind power and other energy to the central and eastern regions through â€œbundling and transportationâ€ to meet energy demand.
â€œThe separate transmission of wind power is facing greater technical risks. The existing systems are very difficult to operate in terms of frequency control, voltage regulation, and safety and stability.â€ Zhang Yunzhou stated that wind power that can be accepted by Inner Mongolia in 2020 will be adopted if no â€œbundling and transportationâ€ is adopted. The installed capacity is less than 7 million kilowatts, but if wind power and thermal power are bundled and delivered, the scale of wind power development in Inner Mongolia will reach 39 million kilowatts by 2020.
At present, the 7 million kilowatt-class wind power bases planned for the country have an installed capacity of 61 million kilowatts by 2015. However, the issue of on-grid tariff and grid-connected transmission of wind power is still a bottleneck restricting its development.
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