Coal-fired price increases, large coal-fired power integration companies benefit

In order to alleviate the continuous shortage of electricity since the beginning of this year, on November 30th, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a set of “combination boxing” of “price increase of coal price limit” to implement temporary intervention measures for coal prices. It is reported that this time the power coal price control measures mainly include: the appropriate control of the contract price of coal, the maximum price for the market trading coal, and a comprehensive clean-up of coal-related funds and charges. Relevant experts told reporters that the "combination boxing" introduced this time was not small. Since the coal market was liberalized in 2006, this is the second time that both contract coal and market coal prices have been set, but this does not mean that coal Market-oriented reforms are retrogressive. On the contrary, if we can take this opportunity to clean up the circulation of coal, the coal resource tax reform may come more than expected.

The effect of "combination boxing" or victory over the past according to the National Development and Reform Commission's notice content, the national sales price per kilowatt-hour on average increased by about 3 cents, and from January 1 next year, the contracted coal price increase shall not exceed 5%, the main port 5,500 The market price of coal for coal card closure shall not exceed 800 yuan per ton.

Wu Chenghou, a consultant of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, told the reporter that it is generally calculated that the increase in on-grid tariff of 3 cents will not enable thermal power companies to reverse the loss, but it is 50 yuan/ton more than the current market price of coal equivalent to 850 yuan/ton. The drop is equivalent to a 2 cent increase in the on-grid tariff for thermal power companies.

"5 cents / kWh price adjustment should be able to make this winter thermal power companies breathe a sigh of relief." Wu Chenghou said.

It is reported that since the coal market price was released in 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission had imposed the maximum price for contract coal and market coal for the first time three years ago, but the effect was not satisfactory at the beginning of implementation. On June 19, 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) introduced the first temporary intervention policy after the release of coal prices, which required the national coal production enterprises to supply coal for power generation, including key contracted coal and non-key contracts. For coal, its car plate price is based on the actual settlement price on June 19, 2008 as the maximum price.

However, until the price limit was reached in July, although the key coal companies implemented the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission, the port transit coal price did not appear to be stable. Taking the Qinhuangdao port as an example, the 5500 kcal thermal coal rose rapidly from around 860 yuan/ton on June 19 to a high of 1,100 yuan, up by 22% in one month. On the 24th of the month, the National Development and Reform Commission could no longer issue a "price limit order" to require the establishment of the maximum price for thermal coal in major ports and distribution centers.

“The situation in 2008 will not be reproduced. Compared with the last time, this time it was the 'combination boxing'.” Wu Chenghou said, “On the one hand, the contract coal is allowed to rise limitedly, and on the other hand, the reduction in market coal is also reasonable. In the area, the most important thing is that the requirements for comprehensively clearing and reorganizing coal-related funds and fees have been introduced."

According to the notice, the coal-related funds and fees set up by the provincial governments below the provincial level must be cancelled before the end of the year. The provincial government's fund collection rate must not exceed RMB 23/ton, which is lower than the current level of RMB 23/ton. It shall be set up;

"This will help the market coal prices fall to about 800 yuan / ton level." China Coal Economic Research Association Secretary-General Zhao Jialian told this reporter, "I think this time the rectification of the coal circulation market is not a temporary intervention. The strict implementation of the regulations and the effective improvement of the increasingly high coal price adjustment funds and fees in various provinces can pave the way for the reform of the coal resources tax."

Energy researcher Ruan Zhicheng told reporters that the current coal price “has not prosperous in the peak season”. At this time, the price limit, the immediate impact on the coal sales side is less than the rapid rise in coal prices, the party’s psychological acceptance ability will be better than ever.

The Bohai Rim coal price index is in a situation where the market price of coal meets the planned price and it bears an objective reflection of the price level and changing trend of the coal spot trading in the Bohai Rim region.

“At present, the National Development and Reform Commission has not issued relevant notices and it is not known what kind of adjustments will be made in technology.” Li Xuegang, general manager of Qinhuangdao Coal Trading Market, told the reporter that “We may prepare several proposals.”

Zhai Zhicheng stated that the price limit will undoubtedly have a certain impact on the generation and continuous publication and use of the index. From a technical perspective, there are many situations that need to be considered. If all coal prices are below 800 yuan/ton, the index can be issued and operated normally, but above 800 yuan/ton, electric coal will go sideways at 800 yuan/ton, and non-electric coal can continue to grow upwards.

“How do we deal with the index at this time? Under the price limit, does coal-fired and non-electricity coal be considered separately or continue to be considered together?” Zhai Zhicheng pointed out, “These and other more complicated technical issues require the index-making unit to seriously study and Reached consensus with relevant parties."

Li Xuegang told reporters that from the current situation, the coal price is in a downtrend channel as a whole, and “unlimited prices are also going down.”

The latest issue of the Bohai Bohai Thermal Coal Price Index shows that the comprehensive average price of thermal coal for the 5,500-kilowatt market at the closed ports of the Bohai Rim closed at 847 yuan/ton, and fell for the third consecutive week, with a cumulative decline of 6 yuan/ton. Ton. The three-phase tons of coal fell by RMB1, RMB2, and RMB3 respectively, showing a gradual increase.

Li Xuegang pointed out that from the collection and calculation results of the transaction prices of the six ports in the Bohai Rim, none of the 24 port specification products in this report period has experienced price increases, and 19 port specification products have fallen in price. The decline in the transaction prices of low-quality port specifications for various ports was even greater. The thermal coal market in the region has already shifted to the “buyer's market” pattern.

“At present, the supply and demand of the national coal market is basically balanced, and some ports have even experienced a situation of oversupply.” Li Xuegang said: “The 5500 kcal thermal coal price should basically fall back to about 800 yuan/ton, which may be in the future 1 - Appeared in February."

Large-scale coal-fired electricity integration companies benefit from industry analysis that listed companies with coal-electricity integration concepts are expected to become the winners of this round of coal price adjustments, such as China Shenhua, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Xishan Coal & Electricity. CICC predicted that due to the increase in on-grid tariffs, China Shenhua will increase its after-tax net profit by 210 million yuan.

On December 1, Huang Qing, the China secret secretary of the China Shenhua Group, stated in Sanya, Hainan that in the coal-fired power policy of this combination, the advantages of coal-fired power integration of Shenhua Co. are unobstructed.

"According to the expected completion calculations at the beginning of this year, the company can benefit from 3 billion yuan," said Huang Qing.

China Shenhua is expected to complete 360 ​​million tons of coal sales this year, generating 151 billion kwh. As the proportion of its sales of contract coal and market coal is basically the same, in the coal sales segment, China Shenhua lost approximately RMB 3.6 billion. However, due to the increase in on-grid tariffs, the profits of the power sector can be increased by about 7 billion yuan. With simple calculations, it is still possible to increase revenue by about 3 billion yuan.

Huang Qing believes that this trial conclusion is still valid until next year. "That is to say, this set of policies is beneficial to large-scale coal and electricity integration listed companies."

He also said that the three price adjustments during the year are still not enough to reverse the current and long-term losses of power companies. For large coal companies, it is still a good time to continue purchasing power assets.

“The capital assets of the power assets during the construction process are very few. The power plants have been operating for two years and the capital funds have been depleted. After taking over the bank debts of the power plant, the power plant is yours.” Huang Qing pointed out that China Shenhua expects the price of electricity to be certain To market, and the initial stage of marketization of electricity prices must be "up."

According to reports, following the acquisition and merger principle of "the power plant in the region where power demand is strong, the power plant generating unit is a large-capacity high-parameter new unit, the power plant can use Shenhua coal," this year, China Shenhua frequent acquisition of power plants, the size of thermal power to do more The stronger, "It's profitable at the most difficult times."