Recently, an article entitled "Recovery of the 4G concept of the communication equipment industry promoted the highest rise of individual stocks by more than 130%" was published, which caused a lot of attention in the market. Behind the rising market sentiment is the feast of explosive growth of 4G network construction. The three key sub-industries of main equipment, wireless supporting equipment and communication transmission will be the first to grab the cake. Related listed companies are expected to usher in the turning point of performance in the third quarter.
4G construction ushered in an explosive period
"There are two main reasons for the good market in the communications equipment sector, one is because of the oversold last year, and the other is the stimulation of the 4G concept." Guodu Securities and Communications Industry Researcher believes that the current market is still in the performance expectation hype, corresponding to the upcoming The coming peak of 4G network construction.
From a global perspective, 2010 is the first year of the construction of 4G by overseas mainstream operators. Most institutions expect that the investment time for overseas 4G will continue for about 3 years. Recently, the "Google Fiber Concept" has begun to ferment around the world. At the same time as the successful implementation in the United States, Google Fiber has begun to be promoted to Africa, Southeast Asia and other places, which has added fire to the global 4G network construction.
As of the third quarter of 2012, the number of global 4G users has grown from 3.8 million in 2010 to 43.7 million, and some organizations expect that by 2016, global 4G users may exceed 1 billion. At present, the United States, Japan and South Korea have taken a step forward in the construction of 4G networks. Europe and developing countries are also actively deploying. The climax of overseas 4G network construction has already begun.
In China, 4G is basically mature in terms of technical standards, frequency allocation, terminal preparation, and network equipment preparation. Recently, it is reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's initial plan for issuing 4G licenses is to first issue TD-LTE licenses to three operators, and then issue FDD-LTE licenses to operators interested in building FDD-LTE networks.
CITIC Securities estimates that by 2015, China Mobile's 4G subscribers will be approximately 74 million, China Unicom will be approximately 2 million, China Telecom will be approximately 19 million, and the total number of 4G subscribers will be approximately 96 million.
China Mobile's 3G network competition is at a disadvantage. It is eager to promote 4G construction, actively strives for early issuance of 4G licenses, and has begun to expand scale trials in 13 major cities.
With the advancement of global 4G network deployment, the scale of operators' capital expenditure is growing rapidly. According to iSuppli's report, the global capital expenditures for 4G technology will reach US $ 24.3 billion in 2013, a staggering 179% compared to 2012's US $ 8.7 billion.
Domestically, 2013 will be a year of explosive growth in 4G investment, and institutions generally expect the climax of network construction to continue for three years. According to CITIC Securities' forecast data, from 2013 to 2015, China's investment in 4G equipment was 41.1 billion yuan, 47.5 billion yuan, and 50 billion yuan, with growth rates of 513%, 16%, and 5%, respectively. Among them, the total investment in main equipment, transmission investment, base station equipment, and power supply during the three years was approximately 61.107 billion, 47.9 billion, and 17.9 billion, respectively. From 2013 alone, the growth rate of investment in the main equipment, RF devices, network optimization coverage, transmission and other markets will reach 523%, 573%, 613% and 322%, respectively.
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