[Source: "High-tech LED - Research and Review" June issue]
Since the beginning of the year, due to the continuous impact of the overseas financial crisis, domestic LED lighting companies' overseas orders have generally declined. Some companies have lost 30% in the first half of the year.
The recent round of intensive new central and local industrial support policies seems to have become a timely rain in the LED lighting industry.
On May 16, 2012, the State Council executive meeting discussed and approved the “12th Five-Year Plan for the National Basic Public Service System†to study and determine the policy measures to promote the consumption of energy-efficient home appliances. The meeting decided to arrange financial subsidies of 26.5 billion yuan, including 2.2 billion yuan to support the promotion of energy-saving lamps and LED lights.
Then, the Guangdong Provincial Government issued the “Implementation Plan for Promoting the Use of LED Lighting Products in Guangdong Provinceâ€. From the date of implementation of the plan, the lighting projects of the province's roads, public places, government agencies, state-owned enterprises and institutions, and other financial projects invested by state-owned capital, as well as new areas such as Nansha, Qianhai and Hengqin, will use LED lighting products. . According to the plan, the Pearl River Delta region should strive to achieve more than 50% of the province's year-on-year lighting energy savings by the end of 2014 before the end of 2013.
"These support policies can only be to expand domestic demand in the short term, so that some LED companies will benefit for a while, and have not substantially promoted the development of China's LED industry." A lighting company official said that for this intensive policy, different people have different opinions.
In view of the fact that the previous policies were mainly based on municipal public lighting, some business leaders said that foreign models are mostly developed from public lighting to public lighting, while domestic lighting is developed from public lighting to civilian lighting. "Excessive government projects have also caused the LED market to grow too fast, the development of the upstream, middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain is uneven, and there is an industrial bubble." One investor said.
Everyone's concerns come from the shadow of a series of industrial support policies of local governments in the past few years. "Some of the previous policies have not been too obvious. In addition to the increase in the number of enterprises and the scale of investment, there has not been any major change in the lighting terminal market." The above investors admit that in the past few years, companies have been ignoring the market for sales. Capacity has caused the market to exceed supply.
What is gratifying is that cities such as Qingdao and Foshan have successively launched consumer subsidies for the civilian LED lighting market. Zhang Hongbiao, research director of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, said that civil lighting is the biggest potential market for LED lighting. Under the government's continued favorable policies, the civilian market is just around the corner.
The domestic market is the key
This year, the LED lighting application industry support policies introduced by governments at all levels have led to the rapid cooling of the domestic LED lighting market.
The High-Tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII) expects that domestic LED lighting production will increase by more than 60% year-on-year this year, which is the fastest growing year for the LED lighting industry.
In terms of output value, the entire LED industry will also maintain a rapid growth trend. GLII statistics show that the growth rate of domestic LED chip output value was 50% last year, and the output value is expected to increase by 45% year-on-year. Last year, the growth rate of LED lighting production was 27%, and it is expected to reach 36% this year, the highest in history.
Zhang Hongbiao said that the promotion of LED lighting is inseparable from government subsidies and support, as well as the rapid decline in the price of LED lighting products. However, he also pointed out that the rapid growth of the domestic LED lighting market this year is not reflected in the "rigid" demand of residents, energy-saving lamps are still the protagonists.
"At present, domestic policy subsidies are mainly targeted at outdoor public LED lighting fields such as LED street lights and landscape lighting. For the civilian market, national and local governments are still less involved." Zhang Hongbiao said that the domestic LED civilian market is not growing at a faster rate than Russia. Other emerging countries such as India are fast.
According to a survey by the reporter, the structural characteristics of the domestic LED lighting market are very similar to those of the photovoltaic industry. Relevant data show that photovoltaics account for less than 10% of the domestic application market, and the remaining 90% rely on exports. Due to excessive dependence on exports, it has repeatedly caused the crisis of the domestic photovoltaic industry.
Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, CEO of Gaogong LED, believes that an industry must develop healthily. First, the market space must be huge, and it is driven by the domestic consumer market. Only when the domestic market is guaranteed will it not affect the survival of enterprises because of the ups and downs of overseas markets.
Industrial bubble shadow
In the past few years, due to the misinterpretation of policies by enterprises, the LED industry chain has seen a “Great Leap Forward†trend from top to bottom. In the interview, the industry's general concern about the industrial bubble is still lingering.
It is understood that some LED projects in Jiangsu, Jiangxi and other regions claim to be the largest and most complete industrial base, but a large number of repeated investments are entirely labor investment, material consumption, and equipment idle. "LED is an energy-saving industry, but the repeated investment in LED and excess capacity has caused a very large energy consumption." A developer of the China Merchants Development Zone said to the "High-tech LED."
Not only in the upper and middle reaches, but also in the downstream applications, some LED street lights and lighting replacement projects have not ended perfectly.
“Application engineering, the replacement of old soldiers, has indeed caused a lot of industrial waste.†Guan Xudong said that the Chinese government is now stepping up efforts to promote the popularity of LED lighting applications. In essence, this process is the government's buying, but for the enterprise, it is a good development opportunity.
Guan Xudong believes that for lighting application companies, subsidy support leads to upstream overcapacity, while overcapacity brings inventory accumulation and chip prices.
Referring to the national energy-saving benefit subsidy policy, Yimeixinguang said: “Although LED LCD TVs are also within the scope of subsidies, considering that the market price of medium-sized backlights has declined in the past year. Low, so the total market demand and total output value have not been substantially improved."
Since the beginning of the year, due to the continuous impact of the overseas financial crisis, domestic LED lighting companies' overseas orders have generally declined. Some companies have lost 30% in the first half of the year.
The recent round of intensive new central and local industrial support policies seems to have become a timely rain in the LED lighting industry.
On May 16, 2012, the State Council executive meeting discussed and approved the “12th Five-Year Plan for the National Basic Public Service System†to study and determine the policy measures to promote the consumption of energy-efficient home appliances. The meeting decided to arrange financial subsidies of 26.5 billion yuan, including 2.2 billion yuan to support the promotion of energy-saving lamps and LED lights.
Then, the Guangdong Provincial Government issued the “Implementation Plan for Promoting the Use of LED Lighting Products in Guangdong Provinceâ€. From the date of implementation of the plan, the lighting projects of the province's roads, public places, government agencies, state-owned enterprises and institutions, and other financial projects invested by state-owned capital, as well as new areas such as Nansha, Qianhai and Hengqin, will use LED lighting products. . According to the plan, the Pearl River Delta region should strive to achieve more than 50% of the province's year-on-year lighting energy savings by the end of 2014 before the end of 2013.
"These support policies can only be to expand domestic demand in the short term, so that some LED companies will benefit for a while, and have not substantially promoted the development of China's LED industry." A lighting company official said that for this intensive policy, different people have different opinions.
In view of the fact that the previous policies were mainly based on municipal public lighting, some business leaders said that foreign models are mostly developed from public lighting to public lighting, while domestic lighting is developed from public lighting to civilian lighting. "Excessive government projects have also caused the LED market to grow too fast, the development of the upstream, middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain is uneven, and there is an industrial bubble." One investor said.
Everyone's concerns come from the shadow of a series of industrial support policies of local governments in the past few years. "Some of the previous policies have not been too obvious. In addition to the increase in the number of enterprises and the scale of investment, there has not been any major change in the lighting terminal market." The above investors admit that in the past few years, companies have been ignoring the market for sales. Capacity has caused the market to exceed supply.
What is gratifying is that cities such as Qingdao and Foshan have successively launched consumer subsidies for the civilian LED lighting market. Zhang Hongbiao, research director of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, said that civil lighting is the biggest potential market for LED lighting. Under the government's continued favorable policies, the civilian market is just around the corner.
The domestic market is the key
This year, the LED lighting application industry support policies introduced by governments at all levels have led to the rapid cooling of the domestic LED lighting market.
The High-Tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII) expects that domestic LED lighting production will increase by more than 60% year-on-year this year, which is the fastest growing year for the LED lighting industry.
In terms of output value, the entire LED industry will also maintain a rapid growth trend. GLII statistics show that the growth rate of domestic LED chip output value was 50% last year, and the output value is expected to increase by 45% year-on-year. Last year, the growth rate of LED lighting production was 27%, and it is expected to reach 36% this year, the highest in history.
Zhang Hongbiao said that the promotion of LED lighting is inseparable from government subsidies and support, as well as the rapid decline in the price of LED lighting products. However, he also pointed out that the rapid growth of the domestic LED lighting market this year is not reflected in the "rigid" demand of residents, energy-saving lamps are still the protagonists.
"At present, domestic policy subsidies are mainly targeted at outdoor public LED lighting fields such as LED street lights and landscape lighting. For the civilian market, national and local governments are still less involved." Zhang Hongbiao said that the domestic LED civilian market is not growing at a faster rate than Russia. Other emerging countries such as India are fast.
According to a survey by the reporter, the structural characteristics of the domestic LED lighting market are very similar to those of the photovoltaic industry. Relevant data show that photovoltaics account for less than 10% of the domestic application market, and the remaining 90% rely on exports. Due to excessive dependence on exports, it has repeatedly caused the crisis of the domestic photovoltaic industry.
Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, CEO of Gaogong LED, believes that an industry must develop healthily. First, the market space must be huge, and it is driven by the domestic consumer market. Only when the domestic market is guaranteed will it not affect the survival of enterprises because of the ups and downs of overseas markets.
Industrial bubble shadow
In the past few years, due to the misinterpretation of policies by enterprises, the LED industry chain has seen a “Great Leap Forward†trend from top to bottom. In the interview, the industry's general concern about the industrial bubble is still lingering.
It is understood that some LED projects in Jiangsu, Jiangxi and other regions claim to be the largest and most complete industrial base, but a large number of repeated investments are entirely labor investment, material consumption, and equipment idle. "LED is an energy-saving industry, but the repeated investment in LED and excess capacity has caused a very large energy consumption." A developer of the China Merchants Development Zone said to the "High-tech LED."
Not only in the upper and middle reaches, but also in the downstream applications, some LED street lights and lighting replacement projects have not ended perfectly.
“Application engineering, the replacement of old soldiers, has indeed caused a lot of industrial waste.†Guan Xudong said that the Chinese government is now stepping up efforts to promote the popularity of LED lighting applications. In essence, this process is the government's buying, but for the enterprise, it is a good development opportunity.
Guan Xudong believes that for lighting application companies, subsidy support leads to upstream overcapacity, while overcapacity brings inventory accumulation and chip prices.
Referring to the national energy-saving benefit subsidy policy, Yimeixinguang said: “Although LED LCD TVs are also within the scope of subsidies, considering that the market price of medium-sized backlights has declined in the past year. Low, so the total market demand and total output value have not been substantially improved."
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